Due to disagreements in the United States Senate, no official government budget has been passed for the 2025-26 fiscal year, causing a government shutdown, cutting government funding and furloughing government workers until a resolution is agreed upon.
Why did this happen?
The Republican Party has a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, holding 219 seats in the House and 53 seats in the Senate. Due to this majority, republican budget propositions have moved more easily through the House, but have gotten stuck in the Senate.
The Senate’s standard of “endless debate,” or filibustering, has stopped any budget from passing thus far because to reach cloture, and end a filibuster, the Republican party needs 60 votes, or in other words, bipartisan support to pass their spending plan.
On Sept. 30 two budget plans, the Republican-sponsored “clean” funding bill and the Democratic bill, both containing an extension to government funding, were voted on, but each fell short of the 60 votes required to pass, bringing on the shutdown.
The parties disagree on several issues, including the funding of healthcare, with Democrats calling for a restoration of funding for Medicare/Medicaid and an extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits for health insurance, and Republicans proposing a continued downsizing of healthcare funding.
Historically, the executive branch has stepped into the role of mediator to ensure an agreement is made. Yet, in a meeting held by President Trump with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer on Sept. 29, before the shutdown occurred, no resolution was reached, with Trump saying, “If it has to shut down, it’ll have to shut down.”
Public impact
The impact felt by the American public will differ strongly depending on the length of the shutdown. Currently, about 750,000 government workers face furlough or work without pay if their work is deemed “necessary.”
Based on the 2018-19 government shutdown, the longest in American history at 35 days, disruption of legal proceedings can be expected and national parks face shutdown. Though Americans can continue to expect social security checks, appointments and claim meetings can be delayed.
Should the shutdown continue, many disruptions in education will occur, particularly impacting schools on military bases and Native American reservations that rely on federal funding. Though recipients of the Pell Grant and other federal aid will continue receiving help, during the shutdown the Department of Education will no longer be able to investigate civil rights violations and cannot issue new federal grants.
Air traffic controllers will also be affected. Due to the fact that they are considered essential workers they will be kept working without pay, causing financial hardship and increasing sick leave, possibly disrupting travel.
Federal courts will remain open and the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency will be generally unaffected. The Internal Revenue Service and the Department of Veterans Affairs will also be largely unaffected, apart from the closing of several VA phone support services.
What’s next?
Currently, it’s difficult to say how long the shutdown will last and what will end it. Some possibilities include: enough Democrats will flip their vote to pass the budget, Republicans will compromise with the Democrats or the stalemate will continue through October and possibly beyond.
Democrats have a vested interest in altering the budget; they don’t control the legislative or executive branch, and this is one of the few ways they can see their party goals carried out. This fact might ensure they fight harder in staying uncompromising in their healthcare requests.
In an address made by House Democrat leaders addressing the shutdown, California Rep. Peter Aguilar explained how adamant he and other Democrats are in remaining firm in their healthcare spending goals.
“Preserving and expanding access to quality affordable [health]care has always been House Democrats top priority. It should come as no surprise to Republicans that we wouldn’t support their agenda that dismantles healthcare,” Aguilar said.
Another possibility is that Republicans will eventually compromise with the Democrats in their healthcare goals, or at least enough to get the 60 votes needed to pass their bill. While they currently have leverage over the Democrats in terms of negotiating power, public anger or internal arguments may be enough to sway them.
Public narrative will also affect each parties’ willingness to compromise but it’s unclear which party will garner more public dissatisfaction in the long run, thus increasing pressure to compromise with the other. In a five-day poll taken by the New York Times and the Sienna National Poll of Registered Voters, results showed Americans would blame Republicans for a shutdown more so than Democrats, but the majority said they would blame both.
A new meeting with Senate party leaders and President Trump has not been set and as of Oct. 1 both bills have again been rejected, officially lengthening the shutdown for at least three days. If both parties continue to remain firm, this political staring contest may continue for days or even weeks before coming to a conclusion.
